The Sears Bankruptcy
Sears has been one of the largest retailers in the world for many years now. The company has been in operation for about a century. Sears is one of the most widely known corporations in the world. Finally, in October 2018, Sears is now filing bankruptcy. Many investors were already expecting this move given the […]
Issues With the Valuation of Sports Franchises
The valuation of sports franchises is often quoted widely in the public domain. This is generally done based on the valuation provided by the sports franchise itself. The media just published the number that was quoted by the sports franchise. This is because the media is in no position to validate these numbers. Also, since […]
Level Based Sponsorship (Tiered Sponsorship)
In the previous articles, we have already seen what sponsorship is and what are the various advantages and disadvantages which are associated with sponsorship. However, up until now, we have been assuming a one-to-one relationship between sponsors and the sporting league. However, it is possible to have multiple sponsors which sponsor the same league. This […]
The World without Bankruptcy Laws
Bankruptcy is one of the natural states which a company may find itself in. Entrepreneurship is primarily about taking risks. When companies take risks, some of them succeed, whereas others fail. Hence failure is a natural part of the business. However, many critics of bankruptcy laws believe that there isn’t a need for an elaborate […]
The Perils of the Immediacy Trap and Why we can and cannot do without it
What is the Immediacy Trap and How we can and cannot do without It We are living in a 24/7 media saturated world which keeps us on our toes almost on a continuous basis. coupled with the proliferation of print and visual media as well as social media, the tendency of most people, whether they […]
Estimating the value of equity stock of a company is not an easy proposition. This is because while estimating the stock price, all the data required to be used in the formula is not easily available. This is because the data is subjective.
It is really the analysts call on what they believe about the company, its future and based on it what numbers they input in the formula.
Also, slightly different numbers used in the formula give vastly different results. Hence, an analyst must have a strong basis to use any number as an input to the stock valuation formula.
Here are some of the common assumptions that will have to be made by the analyst during the stock valuation exercise:
As we learned in the previous article that stock valuation happens in two stages. The first stage is the horizon period for which exact cash flows are estimated.
Beyond the horizon period, the stock is considered to be a growing perpetuity and its value is estimated. But the question is “How big or small should the horizon period be and why?” We need to understand that the answer to this is not factual or based in proof.
Rather, the answer is based on subjectivity and convention. It is therefore entirely up to the analyst to decide what the horizon period should be?
An investor, however must be aware that changing the horizon period has massive effects on the stock valuation and must therefore watch out for the same.
After the horizon period is over, the stock is considered to be a growing perpetuity. This means that it will continue growing at a constant rate for the rest of its perpetual life.
This rate must be less than the required rate of return or else the answer we will receive will be infinite since it will no longer be a decreasing infinite series.
But, then what should that constant rate of growth be? This is again a matter of great subjectivity. Once again the analyst has a high level of discretion in this decision.
Also, this assumption is extremely important because the value of the perpetuity accounts for almost two thirds of the stock price in most cases.
A wrong assumption here can therefore give a significantly higher or lower stock price.
Apart from the expected returns to be realized from the venture, there is also a great deal of subjectivity regarding the riskiness that is involved in each case. It is obviously difficult to compare the riskiness across industries and across companies.
It is for this reason that estimating the cost of capital becomes relatively difficult. The market is efficient in pricing risk to a large extent.
The cost of equity capital is calculated using data from the market from the past few years. But once again, the riskiness can be very different depending on whether we select data for the past 10 years or for the past 15 years. This makes it a subjective decision too!
Also, the cash flows in the horizon period are estimated based on what the analyst thinks the future looks like in the next 5 to 7 years or whatever is the chosen horizon period. But, it is important to know that these estimates rarely end up being accurate.
Consider the fact that business cycles are largely unpredictable, and so are the moves by the competition and we understand why we can’t be relatively certain even about the future in the short and medium term.
The bottom line therefore is that any stock valuation is like a building which is standing on the pillars of its assumptions.
A good investor will therefore first investigate the soundness and reasonableness of its assumptions before deciding whether or not the stock valuation is fair.
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