Consequences of Incorrect Job Order Costing
Causes of Failure of Job Order Costing: The following is the list of the most probable causes that would cause the job order costing system of the company to fail: Adequate System Not In Place: Job order costing requires an elaborate system in place. In earlier times this was done with the help of paperwork […]
Embedded Options in Fixed income Securities
Options and derivatives are generally associated with equity securities. It is for this reason that most investors are not aware that they can also buy bonds with embedded options from the market. Options significantly change the risk profile of the bonds being issued. It is for this reason that bonds that have embedded options need […]
The SWIFT Network
We live in a technological age today and hence are afforded many conveniences which people in the prior generations did not have. For instance, today, if we want to transfer money to a person or an entity in a different part of the globe, it can be accomplished with a few clicks and within a […]
How Corporate Dividends are Taxed?
The continuous inflow of capital is vital for any economy to grow in the long run. This inflow of cash is achieved by mobilizing the idle funds to the industrious. This happens when individuals invest their money as equity capital in the companies of the nation. Hence, one of the tasks of the government should […]
Income Approach to Valuation of Sports Franchises
From the previous articles, we now know that sports franchises across the world are now being viewed as commercial entities. Hence, it is vital to derive the correct valuation for them in order to ensure that buy and sell as well as restructuring transactions can take place at the correct valuation. However, we also know […]
Estimating the value of equity stock of a company is not an easy proposition. This is because while estimating the stock price, all the data required to be used in the formula is not easily available. This is because the data is subjective.
It is really the analysts call on what they believe about the company, its future and based on it what numbers they input in the formula.
Also, slightly different numbers used in the formula give vastly different results. Hence, an analyst must have a strong basis to use any number as an input to the stock valuation formula.
Here are some of the common assumptions that will have to be made by the analyst during the stock valuation exercise:
As we learned in the previous article that stock valuation happens in two stages. The first stage is the horizon period for which exact cash flows are estimated.
Beyond the horizon period, the stock is considered to be a growing perpetuity and its value is estimated. But the question is “How big or small should the horizon period be and why?” We need to understand that the answer to this is not factual or based in proof.
Rather, the answer is based on subjectivity and convention. It is therefore entirely up to the analyst to decide what the horizon period should be?
An investor, however must be aware that changing the horizon period has massive effects on the stock valuation and must therefore watch out for the same.
After the horizon period is over, the stock is considered to be a growing perpetuity. This means that it will continue growing at a constant rate for the rest of its perpetual life.
This rate must be less than the required rate of return or else the answer we will receive will be infinite since it will no longer be a decreasing infinite series.
But, then what should that constant rate of growth be? This is again a matter of great subjectivity. Once again the analyst has a high level of discretion in this decision.
Also, this assumption is extremely important because the value of the perpetuity accounts for almost two thirds of the stock price in most cases.
A wrong assumption here can therefore give a significantly higher or lower stock price.
Apart from the expected returns to be realized from the venture, there is also a great deal of subjectivity regarding the riskiness that is involved in each case. It is obviously difficult to compare the riskiness across industries and across companies.
It is for this reason that estimating the cost of capital becomes relatively difficult. The market is efficient in pricing risk to a large extent.
The cost of equity capital is calculated using data from the market from the past few years. But once again, the riskiness can be very different depending on whether we select data for the past 10 years or for the past 15 years. This makes it a subjective decision too!
Also, the cash flows in the horizon period are estimated based on what the analyst thinks the future looks like in the next 5 to 7 years or whatever is the chosen horizon period. But, it is important to know that these estimates rarely end up being accurate.
Consider the fact that business cycles are largely unpredictable, and so are the moves by the competition and we understand why we can’t be relatively certain even about the future in the short and medium term.
The bottom line therefore is that any stock valuation is like a building which is standing on the pillars of its assumptions.
A good investor will therefore first investigate the soundness and reasonableness of its assumptions before deciding whether or not the stock valuation is fair.
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