The Link between Credit Growth and Real Estate Bubbles
February 12, 2025
We discussed the definition of inflation in a lot of detail in the previous article. The previous article was meant to bring to the readers notice that the current definition of inflation is flawed. Instead a previously used definition was capable of defining the concept in a much better manner. This brings up the question, […]
We have already ascertained that inflation is a hidden tax. It is a discretionary power that governments have at their disposal to tax the people without their consent. However, that is not what makes inflation public enemy number 1 as far as economics is concerned. Not only is inflation an unjustly applied tax but when […]
Real estate investing is a sophisticated business. There are sophisticated techniques that are used by many diligent investors to carry out their due diligence. One such sophisticated technique is called ratio analysis. This technique is very similar to the ratio analysis that is carried out while evaluating the financial statements of publicly listed corporations. However, […]
Unemployment is a highly talked about economic term in the modern economic world. Not a day passes by when we do not hear statistics pertaining to unemployment being mentioned in offices, streets or the media. Any change in these numbers is widely broadcasted and economists consider unemployment as a leading signal that will project the […]
Managerial Economics can be defined as amalgamation of economic theory with business practices so as to ease decision-making and future planning by management. Managerial Economics assists the managers of a firm in a rational solution of obstacles faced in the firm’s activities. It makes use of economic theory and concepts. It helps in formulating logical […]
Amongst all investment options available, real estate is the one that buyers tend to get emotionally attached with. For this reason, people rationalize their emotional decisions with the help of many myths about real estate investing.
If one wants to avoid getting entangled in the emotional aspects of real estate investing and make financially sound decisions, it is imperative that these real estate myths be recognized and dismissed. In this article, we will list down some of the foremost real estate investing myths and try to debunk them.
The most common myth propagated by real estate salesmen and other proponents of real estate investing is that land is scarce. There is only a limited amount of land in the world. This coupled with the fact that the population of the world is increasing everyday gives credence to the conclusion that the land prices of the world will continue to rise perpetually since there will always be a shortage of land.
However, a look at the numbers will explain that this is not the case. Firstly, it is true that there is a limited amount of land in the world. However, technological development is making it possible to make more efficient use of this land. Studies have been conducted in this area and their conclusions state that even if the population of the world were to rise four fold, there would still be an abundant amount of land for all humans to survive and thrive!
Secondly, studies have also been conducted which state that the population of the world is about to stabilize. This means that the population growth era has reached its peak and now the number of people will remain more or less constant.
Hence, the “land is scarce and therefore precious” logic is nothing but the propagation of a myth!
This logic is prevalent largely is developing economies which have witnessed unprecedented boom in the real estate sector in the past decade or so. The price of land in these economies has gone up 10 times in the past two decades. As a result, people in these countries have come to believe that the price of land always rises i.e. the real estate always goes up in value.
This is far from the truth. If one were to consider developed economies like Japan and the United States, one can find examples of real estate crashes where prices have dropped to the tune of 40% to 50%. In Japan, the prices have gone down and have continued to stay there for the better part of the last decade.
Hence, once again, “land prices always appreciate in value” is a mythical statement. Land prices are connected to many factors one of which is the well being of an economy in general.
There is a common tendency amongst hopeful real estate investors to extrapolate the trends that were present in the property market in the past and create an extremely bullish future scenario. However, one needs to understand that the world has undergone a fundamental shift in the last decade or so. Business arrangements like outsourcing, free trade and cross border investments by multinationals had created an unprecedented boom in the emerging economies. The future does not apparently hold any such revolution in its offing. In case, no unexpected economic revolution fundamentally changes the economic paradigm, it is highly unlikely that the performance of the past few years gets repeated in the future years. Investors betting on a repeat performance are in for a rude shock!
This is not a very popular myth. However, before the subprime crisis broke out in the United States, stories of self made real estate millionaires who owe their fortunes to nothing but buying and selling real estate on borrowed money were common.
These bloggers propagated the virtues of flipping i.e. buying and selling real estate several times in a very short period. The idea was to book the profit arising from the price differential and converting it into cash. However, what these self-proclaimed gurus forgot to mention is the huge amount of transaction costs that are associated with any kind of real estate transaction worldwide. Therefore, the more properties you flip, the more transaction costs you incur. These transaction costs amount to anywhere between 2% to 5% of the price of the property in question.
Apart from the transaction costs, finding a willing buyer and negotiating a deal is a tedious and time consuming process. Flipping properties therefore causes immense drainage of time as well as resources and therefore should be avoided as far as possible.
Property buyers all over the world have an emotional connection with the real estate that they purchase. From traditional times, buying real estate has been considered the “adult” thing to do for a person. This decision has no financial backing and is rooted in the thinking that having a property to your name somehow makes one economically more secure.
However, if we consider the financial aspects this is clearly not true. There are some situations when buying is clearly the better thing to do whereas there are other situations where renting is the best option. The ideal thing to do therefore depends on a case to case basis. This rent vs. buy decision will be discussed in a later article.
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *