Calculating Free Cash Flow to the Firm: Method #2: Cash Flow From Operations
February 12, 2025
In the previous article, we discussed about how tax base calculations work. However, tax base calculations are just one part of the story. The other part of the calculation is the tax rate. Tax base and tax rate are multiplied to arrive at the tax amount owed by the organization. In this article, we will […]
In the modern world, more and more start-ups are selling products and services related to information technology. These companies either bring about a digital revolution in existing businesses or create a totally new product category. Most of these new businesses sell something intangible. Hence, the traditional distribution models are no longer effective. Web-based companies cannot […]
Governments across the world have stepped up their fight against cash. Cash is being increasingly viewed as a curse that mankind needs to rid itself of. The goal is to move towards a cashless economy. The closer an economy is towards this goal, the more successful it is considered to be. However, the concept of […]
Financial models were widely used by corporations, even in 2008. However, the severity of the 2008 crash forced financial institutions to rethink their approach towards modeling. Many assumptions which are inbuilt in a financial model were being changed to imbibe the lessons learned in the great recession. One such lesson learned was about risk management. […]
A contract is said to be well formed if it is able to cover all the possibilities and provide guidance about what will happen in each and every situation. However, this benchmark cannot really be applied to PPP contracts used for building infrastructure projects. This is because infrastructure projects are extremely long term in nature. […]
The next step towards understanding the dividend discount model is to extend the conclusions derived from the single step dividend model. This brings us to the two period dividend discount model. In this model we will use the same logic. However, we will extend the assumption regarding the holding period. Instead of selling his stock at the end of period 1, the investor holds on to the stock and only sells it at the end of period two. The question arises, how the investor should value the stock this time.
Once again, we will understand this with the help of an example:
An investor is confident that a certain stock can be sold off for $100 if it is held on to for 2 years. He has a required rate of return of 10%.He is also confident that the company will pay a $4 dividend in the first year and a $6 dividend in the second year. However, he is not certain about what the price of the stock should be today?
Calculation:
Once again, the value of the stock is only equal to the present value of all future cash flows that can be derived from that stock. In this case, we will receive three different cash flows.
Also, note that the first cash flow will be received at the end of year 1. However, the second and third cash flows will be simultaneously received at the end of year 2.
Hence, we will discount the first dividend of $4 at 10% for 1 period only. However, second dividend plus the final sale proceeds i.e. $6 and $100 are to be received after two years, therefore they will be discounted for 2 periods.
The formula for the two period dividend discount model is:
= [D1/(1+r)]+ [D2+P2/(1+r)2 ]
= [$4/(1.1)]+ [$6+$100/(1.1)2 ]
= $3.7 + $87.6
=$91.3
Thus, from the given assumptions the value of this investment should be equal to $91.3 in present value terms
Once again,
This model too cannot be used on its own for very accurate results. Once again the reason is that it uses hard to predict variables like future price and future dividends as inputs. However, the two step dividend discount model is proof that the concept of discounting dividends can be extended to several years.
This proof will be used in the next article, to finally arrive at the generic dividend discount model. The assumptions in the generic model are comparably more realistic which makes it usable. In fact it is amongst the most preferred equity valuation models used by cautious investors.
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *