The Narrative Fallacy
In an ideal world, investors are supposed to look only at cold hard facts and analyze them while making an investment decision. However, till now, we know the fact that any of these decisions are not 100% rational. There is always an iota of emotions mixed in decision making, even for the most rational investors. […]
Misconceptions about Personal Finance
The importance of financial planning at an individual and family level cannot be overstated. For years, people and even governments have been trying to inculcate this habit into the masses. However, they have found it difficult to do so. This is because there are several misconceptions related to personal finance, which are common among people. […]
Issues With the Valuation of Sports Franchises
The valuation of sports franchises is often quoted widely in the public domain. This is generally done based on the valuation provided by the sports franchise itself. The media just published the number that was quoted by the sports franchise. This is because the media is in no position to validate these numbers. Also, since […]
The Goodleap Business Model
When investors look at the list of companies that have become unicorns in the recent past, Goodleap tends to stand out. The company has stayed under the radar for a long period of time. It is only in 2021 that the company left the stealth mode and started publicizing some aspects of its business. It […]
Functions of a Central Bank
The modern banking system is two tiered. This means that at the bottom there are commercial banks i.e. the banks that we interact with on a day to day basis. They are then managed by a central bank which forms the next level in the hierarchy. The modern banking system provides central banks with considerably […]
We have earlier discussed the fact that Net present Value (NPV) is considered to be the gold standard when it comes to financial decision making. If a project has an NPV greater than zero then it is supposed to be a financially viable project and the firm must invest its resources towards that project, if not the project should be rejected.
But NPV is not the only metric that we can use to come to this decision regarding accepting or rejecting a project. Payback period is another such metric. In this article we will discuss about the conceptual foundation of payback period and then we shall see its drawbacks.
Payback period basically pays attention to the speed at which the initial investment made in a project will be recovered by subsequent cash flows. The project which helps recoup the investment the fastest is considered to be the best project and that is the project that the firm must dedicate its resources to.
Example:
Let’s say that there are 2 projects A and B. Both require an equal outlay of $2000. Project A pays back $1500 in year 1, $500 in year 2 and $500 in year 3. Project B on the other hand pays $750 for 4 consecutive years.
So, now in this case if we were to use the payback period rule. We could consider the period in which the initial $2000 investment is recovered. In case of Project A, we recover it in 2 years whereas in case of Project B it requires 3 years. So according to the payback rule, Project A is better than Project B and the company must clearly devote its finite resources to Project A before it decides whether or not to undertake Project B.
Now, this decision could be wrong because of a couple of reasons:
To overcome the second limitation of ignoring the time value of money, a modified measure of payback period called the discounted payback period is often used. This measure still does not overcome the fact that payback period does not account for the cash flows after the initial investment has been recouped. This is the reason why payback period is not a perfect metric and why NPV leads to better decisions.
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