Why a War with Iran would be Bad for America?
There is a lot happening in and around Iran. Firstly, the Americans have claimed that their tankers have been attacked in the Gulf of Oman. According to the Americans, this attack was carried out by the Iranians. Also, America has alleged that the Iranian military has used a surface to air missile to bring down an American drone in the region. As a result, tensions between the two countries are at an all-time high. The situation started deteriorating last year when America unilaterally pulled out of a nuclear deal with Iran. The belligerent and aggressive behaviour adopted by Donald Trump has caused a lot of embarrassment to the Iranian leaders. This is the reason why Iran has also started taking an aggressive stance now.
Since both nations do not seem to be in the mood to back down, many analysts are worried that a full-blown war may soon become a reality. Despite the situation being so bad, there is still less than 35% chance of a war breaking out between the two countries. This is largely because they are economically intertwined.
In this article, we will have a look at some of the reasons which make war with Iran, a bad proposition for the United States.
No Clear Objectives
At the present moment, America does not have any clear objectives which it would want to achieve if it went to war with Iran. America and Iran do not get along because they dont seem to agree on the nuclear policy of Iran. America suspects that Iran is trying to create a nuclear bomb. However, it does not have any decisive proof!
A war which is not done to achieve very specific objectives is an open-ended war. Such wars seem to drag on for a very long time draining the resources of the countries involved. Most Americans believe that a war with Iran will only be a result of Trumps arrogance and highhandedness. Therefore, it must be avoided at all costs.
Increased War Expenses
Donald Trump has been a very vocal critic of the wars that America has been fighting. Trump believes that the war with Iraq, as well as Afghanistan, was needless and expensive. For instance, the Iraq war was fought for over a decade before the troops were brought back on. Since the war stretched on for so long, it became extremely expensive. This was also the case with Afghanistan, where the American forces finally had to back down against the Taliban. If the Iran war is started, it would have a huge negative impact on the American economy like the other wars did. The economic loss would also have a personal impact on Donald Trumps self-proclaimed reputation as an economic wizard.
Lack of Allies
Iran is not the only country that Donald Trump has been belligerent against. Trump has picked up fights with several American allies. For instance, it is involved in trade fights with India, China, and even the European Union. Trump claims that America alone pays close to 70% of NATOs expenses. Therefore it is time for other European nations to start contributing more to the defence program. The NATO members do not seem to agree. They believe that America picks most wars that result in expenditures. Hence, it isnt fair for America to ask them to pay more.
The final result is that there is a lack of unity amongst America and its allies. During the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, Americas allies rallied around the nation and helped them in every way possible. However, that is not likely to happen now. As a result, America will have to commit more of its own finances and troops which it is unlikely to do given that its economy may be nearing another recession.
Increased Oil Prices
It is no secret that a war in Iran or anywhere in the Middle East will cause an upward tick in the prices of oil! For example, as soon as news of two tankers being damaged by Iran came out, oil prices ended up spiking.
This is because of two possible reasons. First and foremost is the fact that Iran is itself a big producer of oil. Hence, if Iran is in a state of war, the oil supply reduces and upward pressure is exerted on the price of oil. Secondly, since a lot of oil supply passes from near Iran, it is likely that Iran will try to disrupt oil shipments. Even though America has overwhelming military superiority over Iran, it would be naive to assume that the supply lines will remain unaffected. Iran is likely to use all their missiles and other technology to hurt American interests. This will also raise the prices of oil.
The problem is that high oil prices are not in Trumps interest, given the fact that elections will be around the corner pretty soon.
All the above reasons make it clear that even though America and Iran are not on good terms now, a war is unlikely to break out. Iran doesnt want a war, and America is clearly not in a position to afford one.
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